Discuss how Epidemiological transitions may affect development over the next two decades

Assignment – Considerations for the post-2015 development agenda Keeping in mind that developments beyond our current awareness could affect the future, nonetheless we do understand some of the forces already at play and how they will affect health and human development around the world. From the following list of substantive influences, select four (4) and discuss how each of them may affect development over the next two decades: Epidemiological transitions Development assistance for health Quality of governance Historical legacies Health systems development Climate change Global development priorities Human rights and social equity Engagement of civil society The role of monitoring and evaluation Advances in technology Global economic trends Note: Each discussion should be approximately 2 pages, 1.5 spaced – see below for what I will be looking for in these mini-essays. Each of the four topics (2 page mini-essays) will be graded out of 12 points for a total 6% each. These 12 points will be broken down to 2 points for each of the following elements of an Academic Argument as presented by Gordon Harvey of the Harvard Writing Project. Thesis: 2 points (1%), Motive: 2 points (1%) Evidence: 2 points 1%) Analysis: 2 points (1%) Key Terms: 2 points (1%) Assumptions: 2 points (1%) The easier you make it for me to see these elements in your writing the easier it is for me to allocate marks. Please use headings, bold or italics or other formatting to ensure I see where you have touched on these 6 key elements. Elements of Academic Argument (from G. Harvey, The Academic Essay) 1. Thesis: your main insight or idea about a text or topic, and the main proposition (though it may have several parts) that your essay demonstrates. It should be true but arguable (not obviously or patently true, but one alternative among several), be limited enough in scope to be argued in a short composition and with available evidence, and get to the heart of the text or topic being analyzed (not be peripheral). It should be given early (not just be implied–though its fullest and sharpest statement may come later), and it should govern the whole essay (not disappear in places). 2. Motive: the reason, which you give at the start of your essay, why someone might want to read an essay on this topic: why it isn’t just obvious, why there’s some doubt about the matter, why it requires careful explanation. This usually means showing either that other people have or might have a view different from yours, or that they are or might be puzzled or conflicted or curious about the topic. The others you mention or imagine should not be straw dummies; you need to make clear that their misapprehension or rival claim can be argued for (that there’s a plausible counter-argument, an argument and not just a claim) or that their puzzlement or uncertainty is understandable–that your idea is one that an intelligent reader might really overlook. Your motive thus won’t necessarily be the reason you got interested in the topic, or the personal motivation behind your engagement with it: this could be private and idiosyncratic, whereas your motive is what you say to show that your argument isn’t idiosyncratic, but rather is interest any serious student of your topic 3. Evidence: the data-facts, examples, details–that you refer to, quote, or summarize to support your thesis. There should be enough evidence to be persuasive; it needs to be the right kind of evidence to support the thesis (with no obvious pieces of evidence overlooked); it needs to be sufficiently concrete for the reader to trust it (e.g. in analyzing a text, it often helps to find one or two key or representative passages to quote and focus on); and if summarized, it needs to be summarized accurately and fairly (not suppress data that doesn’t fit your thesis and might be counter-evidence). 4. Analysis: the work of breaking down, interpreting, and commenting upon your data, of saying what can be inferred from the data such that it supports a thesis, is evidence for a claim. Analysis is what you do with data when you go beyond observing or summarizing it: you show how its detail or parts contribute to a whole or how causes contribute to a particular effect or quality; you draw out the significance or implication not apparent to a superficial view, making clear the logic you are using. Analysis is what makes the writer feel present, as a distinct and active mind; so your essay should do more analyzing than it does summarizing or quoting. 5. Key terms: the recurring terms or basic conceptual oppositions that your argument and analysis rest upon, usually literal but sometimes metaphors. An essay’s key terms should be clear in meaning (defined if necessary) and appear throughout (not be abandoned half-way); they should be appropriate for the subject at hand (not unfair or too simple, e.g. implying a false or constraining opposition); and they should not be inert cliches or abstractions (e.g. “the evils of society”). 6. Assumptions: beliefs about life, people, history, reasoning, etc. that you don’t state but are implied in your key terms or in the logic of your argument, that you simply take for granted and assume that your reader will too. These should bear logical inspection, and if arguably they should not be assumed but brought into the open and acknowledged.

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